# Implied Probability Calculator

Created by Wei Bin Loo
Reviewed by Anna Szczepanek, PhD and Steven Wooding
Last updated: Jan 18, 2024

With this implied probability calculator, we aim to help you calculate the probability of an incident happening given the odds. The implied probability helps you to understand how likely an incident is to occur if you are given the American odds for that incident.

We have written this article to help you understand what the implied probability is and how to apply the American odds to the implied probability formula to calculate the implied probability. We will also demonstrate some practical examples to help you understand the concept. You can also check out our probability calculator.

## What is implied probability?

The implied probability is the likelihood of an incident happening based on a given odds. This concept is usually applied in sports betting, where the implied probability tells us the percentage of an incident occurring, given the odds shown by the bookmaker. To understand more about odds, please check out our odds calculator and moneyline odds calculator.

As the odds shown by the bookmaker usually take into account the margin that the bookmaker wishes to make, hence they might be slightly different than the true chance of the outcome. Our matched betting calculator can help you to understand more about sports betting.

## How do American odds work?

American odds, also known as moneyline odds, is a type of betting odds used in sports betting. It is most commonly used in the United States and differs from decimal and fractional odds. American odds can be either positive or negative, and the number indicates how much money you need to bet in order to win a certain amount.

### What does negative American odds mean?

Negative American odds tell you how much you need to bet to win $100. For example, if the American odds are -110, you will need to bet$110 to win \$100.

### How do I convert odds to implied probability?

You can convert odds to implied probability in four steps:

1. Determine if the odds are positive or negative.
2. Determine the odds.
3. If the odds are positive, apply this formula: 100/(odds + 100)
4. If the odds are negative, apply this formula: odds/(odds + 100)

### What is the implied probability for an Americans odds of +500?

The implied probability will be 16.667%. You can calculate this using the following formula:

100 / (odds + 100)
= 100 / (500 + 100) = 0.1667 (16.667%)

Wei Bin Loo
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