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Metastatic Prostate Cancer Prognosis Calculator

Created by Łucja Zaborowska, MD, PhD candidate
Reviewed by Steven Wooding
Based on research by
Zhang, X.; Zhou, G.; Sun, B.; Zhao, G.; Liu, D.; Sun, J.; Liu, C.; Guo, H. Impact of obesity upon prostate cancer-associated mortality: A meta-analysis of 17 cohort studies.; Oncology Letters; March 2015See 3 more sources
Huncharek, M.; Haddock, K.S.; Reid, R.; Kupelnick, B. Smoking as a risk factor for prostate cancer: a meta-analysis of 24 prospective cohort studies.; American Journal of Public Health; April 2010Albertsen, P. C.; Hanley, J. A.; Fine, J. 20-year outcomes following conservative management of clinically localized prostate cancer; JAMA; May 2005Preston, S.H.; Stokes, A. Contribution of obesity to international differences in life expectancy; American Journal of Public Health; November 2011
Last updated: Jun 05, 2023


The metastatic prostate cancer prognosis calculator assesses life expectancy and mortality risk connected to prostate cancer diagnosis in men.

🙋 Please, remember - all the calculations are only estimations and are based on the general population statistics. Math cannot predict the future - every single case, history and disease is different and unrepeatable.

Follow the article below to find out more about prostate cancer, its risk factors, and overall survival. We will also talk about the risk assessment process used in our prostate survival calculator.

Prostate cancer and its risk factors

Prostate cancer is a malignant growth of a walnut-shape male organ called the prostate.

Prostate cancer is currently the 2nd most common neoplasm worldwide - the disease is diagnosed in over 1,200,000 men every year. The statistic says that 1 in 9 American males will develop prostate cancer at some point in their lives.

➡️ We also have some good news - more than 98% of prostate cancer patients will survive at least 10 years.

Prostate cancer risk factors:

  • Old age;
  • African-American race;
  • Family history of prostate/breast/ovarian cancer, especially at a young age;
  • Obesity; and
  • Cigarette smoking.

How do we diagnose prostate cancer?

  1. For people with no specific signs or symptoms:

    • For screening, we use the Prostate Specific Antigen test - we check both PSA doubling time and PSA density.
    • Per rectum examination - a doctor needs to examine the patient's anus and prostate using his pointing finger.
  2. For people with signs/symptoms or suspicious screening results:

Would you like to know more? Discover our articles on:

Prostate cancer stages and their life expectancy

We assess Prostate cancer progression with the TNM staging system.

We distinguish 4 major stages of prostate cancer:

Stage Description

15-year cancer-specific survival

T1

Tumor cannot be felt, or seen. Usually discover by accident.

99%

T2

Tumor is located within the prostate, it can be felt/ seen

96%

T3

The tumor is also located outside of the prostate/ on the seminal vesicles

91%

T4

The tumor has spread to other organs, or lymph nodes

Please find information below

As we can see, the survival and life expectancy of a patient with stages T1-T3 are not that different from the general population. Majority of prostate cancer patients will die of another reason than the neoplasm itself.

Stage 4 prostate cancer life expectancy depends on the presence of metastases - fragments of cancer that have spread to other organs of the body, outside of the pelvis.

♦️ Metastatic prostate cancer life expectancy.

  • Cancer with metastases is automatically a Stage 4 cancer.
  • In this case, stage four prostate cancer survival rate equals 31% - it means that only 1/3 of patients with metastases will survive another five years.

Average survival rates for prostate cancer

The numbers presented above are calculated for a general population of prostate cancer patients, and they include all possible stages of the disease.

5-year survival

  • Nearly 100%

10-year survival

  • Nearly 98%

15-year survival

  • Nearly 95%

How to use the metastatic prostate cancer prognosis calculator?

Our tool requires only seven steps:

  • Enter your age, weight and height

    The calculator will compute your BMI and risk associated with age.

  • Enter you Gleason score

    Your result obtained during the prostate biopsy - smaller score usually bears a better prognosis.

  • Are they any distant metastases?

    Has cancer spread outside of the prostate and the seminal vesicles? The presence of distant metastases decreases survival rates.

  • Assess your health level

    Do you suffer from any chronic disease? Did you have any critical operations? Are you dependent on other people? How would you describe your health, comparing it to the other people (colleagues, friends) from your age group? Think of all these questions and decide which group suits you best.

  • Are you a smoker?

    Smoking increases the risk of multiple types of cancer, including nasopharyngeal, lung, urinary bladder neoplasms.

How do we calculate the advanced prostate cancer prognosis?

Our prostate cancer life expectancy calculator is based on a mathematical model that includes results of multiple studies: Zhang et al, 2015, Huncharek et al, 2010, Albertsen et al, 2005, Preston, 2011, as well as Social Security Actuarial Life Tables.

Here, we present some of the data that modify the life expectancy presented in Actuarial Life Tables:

  1. Gleason Score

    Higher Gleason score is correlated with greater mortality rate.

Gleason score

Mortality rate /1000 person-yeras

2-4

6

5

12

6

30

7

65

8-10

121

  1. BMI

    Obesity, described as BMI ≥ 30 is one of the known factors that decrease longevity in the general population - this disease "steals" on average 1.85 years of life from every obese American.

    We are also aware that obesity correlates with an increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer (relative risk (RR) 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04–1.25) and its greater mortality rate (RR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.15–2.33).

💡 BMI is calculated with the following formula: weight/height2, using kilograms and meters.

  1. Smoking

    Smoking increases the prostate cancer mortality rate. The relative risk of death connected to this neoplasm is equal to 1.14 (95% CI = 1.06-1.19). Some of the heaviest smokers have even 30% more chances of dying from this kind of cancer.

Łucja Zaborowska, MD, PhD candidate
Age
years
Height
in
Weight
lb
Gleason score
2-4
Distant metastases?
No
Health level
Moderate (25-75%)
Are you a smoker?
No
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