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EORTC Bladder Cancer Recurrence and Progression Calculator

Created by Łukasz Białek, MD
Reviewed by Dominik Czernia, PhD and Jack Bowater
Based on research by
Sylvester RJ, van der Meijden AP, Oosterlinck W, Witjes JA, Bouffioux C, Denis L, Newling DW, Kurth K. Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables: a combined analysis of 2596 patients from seven EORTC trials; European urology; March 2006See 1 more source
Babjuk M, Burger M, Capoun O, Cohen D, Compérat EM, Dominguez Escrig JL, Gontero P, Liedberg F, Masson-Lecomte A, Mostafid AH, Palou J, van Rhijn B, Rouprêt M, Shariat SF, Seisen T, Soukup V, Sylvester RJ. European Association of Urology Guidelines on Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (Ta, T1, and Carcinoma in Situ); European urology; January 2022
Last updated: Jun 05, 2023


This EORTC bladder cancer recurrence and progression calculator enables you to find the probability of the recurrence and progression of a non-muscle invasive bladder cancer over one and five years. It takes into consideration six parameters concerning the medical history of the patient and helps you to choose the appropriate treatment options.

Disclaimer: We try our best to make our Omni Calculators as precise and reliable as possible. However, this tool can never replace professional medical advice.

About bladder cancer

Bladder cancer is the most common urinary tract malignancy. It usually affects people over 60 years old and more men than women. Smoking is the biggest risk factor for developing this cancer (smoking, of course, also increases your lung cancer risk – see the lung cancer risk calculator – and kidney cancer risk). The most typical symptom is painless hematuria (blood in the urine). Remember! If haematuria has been found, always search for bladder (or kidney) cancer!

At the time of diagnosis, around 75% of the patients have non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), while the remaining 25% already have advanced disease. Patients with NMIBC generally have a good survival rate. Still, the condition has a significant potential for recurrence of the tumor in the bladder, which may even progress into a more advanced stage of the disease.

Bladder cancer recurrence and progression probability calculator

The treatment of patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer should be based on their prognosis, which includes a prediction of the tumor's recurrence and progression. This EORTC bladder cancer recurrence and progression calculator is a tool that predicts the probability of recurrence and progression and thus proposes appropriate management of patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer.

This calculator was built using the recommendations set out by the European Association of Urology in their guidelines on non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. This process was first described using the analysis of almost 2600 patients by Sylvester et al. in an article titled Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables. This bladder cancer prognosis calculator is a kind of scoring system which is based on six clinical and pathological factors:

  • Number of tumors;
  • Tumor size (diameter of the biggest tumor);
  • Prior bladder cancer recurrence rate;
  • Stage of the disease (T category);
  • Carcinoma in situ (in bladder cancer, CIS is always high grade, requires immediate treatment, and worsens the prognosis); and
  • Tumor grade.

For each of these variables, the patient receives a score from 0 to 6 (for both the risk of recurrence and progression). The details are presented in the table:

Factor

Recurrence points

Progression points

Number of tumors

Single

0

0

2-7

3

3

8

6

3

Tumor diameter

<3 cm

0

0

>3 cm

3

3

Prior recurrence rate

Primary

0

0

<1 rec/year

2

2

1 rec/year

4

2

Stage

Ta

0

0

T1

1

4

Concomitant CIS

No

0

0

Yes

1

6

Grade

G1

0

0

G2

1

0

G3

2

5

Total score

0-17

0-23

After calculating the recurrence points and progression points, they are transferred into percentages of risk according to the tables below:

Recurrence points

Risk of recurrence at 1 year

Risk of recurrence at 5 years

0

15%

31%

1-4

24%

46%

5-9

38%

62%

10-17

61%

78%

Progression points

Risk of progression at 1 year

Risk of progression at 5 year

0

0.2%

0.8%

2-6

1%

6%

7-13

5%

17%

14-23

17%

45%

The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year range from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At the five-year mark, the probabilities of recurrence and progression range from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%. Using the data attached to a specific patient, the urologist can discuss the different therapeutic options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and the frequency of follow-up required.

Was this calculator helpful? If you are interested in oncology, check out the following calculators:

Łukasz Białek, MD
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Number of tumors
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Tumor diameter
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Prior recurrence rate
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Stage of the disease
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Concomitant CIS
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Tumor grade
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Recurrence
Recurrence points
Probability of recurrence at 1 year
%
Probability of recurrence at 5 years
%
Progression
Progression points
Probability of progression at 1 year
%
Probability of progression at 5 years
%
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