Number of tumors
Tumor diameter
Prior recurrence rate
Stage of the disease
Concomitant CIS
Tumor grade
Recurrence points
Probability of recurrence at 1 year
Probability of recurrence at 5 years
Progression points
Probability of progression at 1 year
Probability of progression at 5 years

EORTC Bladder Cancer Recurrence and Progression Calculator

By Łukasz Białek, MD

EORTC Bladder Cancer Recurrence and Progression Calculator enables you to find the probability of the recurrence and progression of a non-muscle invasive bladder cancer over one and five years. It takes into consideration six parameters concerning the medical history of the patient, and helps you to choose the appropriate treatment options.

About bladder cancer

Bladder cancer is the most common urinary tract malignancy. It usually affects people over 60 years old and more men than women. Smoking is the biggest risk factor for developing this cancer (smoking of course causes other cancers, such as lung cancer and kidney cancer). The most typical symptom is painless hematuria (blood in the urine). Remember! If haematuria has been found, always search for bladder (or kidney) cancer!

At the time of diagnosis, around 75% of the patients have non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), while the remaining 25% already have an advanced disease. Patients with NMIBC generally have good survival rate, but the condition has a significant potential for recurrence of the tumor in the bladder, which may even progress into a more advanced stage of the disease.

Bladder cancer recurrence and progression probability calculator

The treatment of patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer should be based on their prognosis, which includes a prognosis of the tumor's recurrence and progression. This EORTC bladder cancer recurrence and progression calculator is a tool that predicts the probability of recurrence and progression and thus proposes an appropriate management of the patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. This calculator was built using the recommendations set out by the European Association of Urology in their guidelines on non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. This process was first described using the analysis of almost 2600 patients by Sylvester et al. in an article titled Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables. This bladder cancer prognosis calculator is a kind of scoring system which is based on six clinical and pathological factors:

  • number of tumors,
  • tumor size (diameter of the biggest tumor),
  • prior bladder cancer recurrence rate,
  • stage of the disease (T category),
  • carcinoma in situ (in bladder cancer CIS is always high grade, requires immediate treatment and worsens the prognosis),
  • tumor grade.

For each of these variables the patient receives a score from 0 to 6 (for both the risk of recurrence and progression). The details are presented in the table:

FactorRecurrence pointsProgression points
Number of tumorssingle0
Tumor diameter<3cm00
Prior recurrence rateprimary00
<1 rec/year22
>1 rec/year42
Concomitant CISNo00
Total Score0-170-23

After calculating the recurrence points and progression points, they are transfered into percentage of risk according to the tables below:

Recurrence pointsRisk of recurrence at 1 yearRisk of recurrence at 5 years
Progression pointsRisk of progression at 1 yearRisk of progression at 5 years

The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year range from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At the five year mark, the probabilities of recurrence and progression range from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%. By using the data attached to a specific patient, the urologist can discuss the different therapeutic options with the patient to determine which is the most appropriate treatment and what frequency of follow-up is required.

Was this calculator helpful? If you are interested in oncology check ANC calculator which helps you determine the risk of febrile neutropenia in patients undergoing chemotherapy.

Łukasz Białek, MD