COVID-19 Mortality Risk Calculator

Created by Dominika Śmiałek, MD, PhD candidate, Joanna Michałowska, PhD candidate and Aleksandra Zając, MD
Reviewed by Bogna Szyk and Jack Bowater
Based on research by
Zunyou Wu, MD, PhD; Jennifer M. McGoogan, PhD Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China JAMA (February 24, 2020)See 8 more sources
Worldometer Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and DeathsWHO-China Joint Mission Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (16-24 February 2020) Global Health 5050 The Sex, Gender and COVID-19 Project Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020Chaoqun Ma, MD; Jiawei Gu, MD; Pan Hou, MD; Liang Zhang, MD; Yuan Bai, MD; Zhifu Guo, MD; Hong Wu, MD; Bili Zhang, MD; Pan Li, MD, MD; Xianxian Zhao Incidence, clinical characteristics and prognostic factor of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis medRxiv (2020)WHO Q&A: Similarities and differences – COVID-19 and influenzaJohn Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center - New Cases WorldwideCDC People with Certain Medical Conditions
Last updated: Nov 24, 2022

It is estimated that as many as 1.7 billion individuals (22% of the global population!) are at increased risk of a severe reaction to COVID-19. This is due to the fact that the current data suggests that about 20% of people on Earth have at least one risk factor, including conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease or hypertension. The prevalence of these conditions is associated with our lifestyle, so it turns out that a healthy diet and appropriate level of physical activity can prevent us not only from diseases of civilization, but also complications of contagious diseases!

Our calculator is using data published in a paper by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which was released in February 2020. It was based on over 70,000 COVID-19 cases in China and so far, it is one of the biggest fatality rate datasets.

One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. We have decided to create this COVID mortality rate calculator to improve public awareness about the importance of staying at home and isolating yourself during a pandemic. You will be able to understand what groups are the most vulnerable, whilst the social distancing calculator will tell your how many lives you can save by isolating.

Be safe, protect others and #StayAtHome.

We try our best to make our Omni Calculators as precise and reliable as possible. However, this tool can never replace a professional doctor's assessment. If any health condition bothers you, consult a physician.

Symptoms and disease progression

Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific, and the disease can present itself in many forms, from no symptoms (asymptomatic), to severe pneumonia and death.

According to WHO, typical signs and symptoms include:

  • Fever;
  • Dry cough;
  • Fatigue;
  • Sputum production;
  • Shortness of breath;
  • Sore throat;
  • Headache;
  • Myalgia or arthralgia;
  • Chills;
  • Nausea or vomiting;
  • Nasal congestion; and
  • Diarrhea.

Fortunately, most people suffering from COVID-19 (81%) generally develop signs and symptoms that can be classified as mild or asymptomatic. However, 14% people develop severe symptoms, and, for 5%, they can be critical (i.e., respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure).

Differences between COVID-19 and flu

As the coronavirus outbreak continues, many people have started to compare COVID-19 to the seasonal flu. Both are respiratory diseases, yet there are important differences between the two viruses that cause these diseases. The symptoms might be similar - mostly asymptomatic or mild, but can result in a severe disease or death. While the range of symptoms might be similar, the fraction of people developing a severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen, and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. The amount of severe and critical infections is higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

Mortality for COVID-19 also appears to be higher than for the flu. It will take some time to fully understand it, but the current data suggests that its crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%. In comparison, for seasonal flu, mortality is usually well below 0.1%.

COVID-19 fatality rate by age

Old age is one of the strongest factors that cause severe COVID-19–associated outcomes. Research shows that patients over 50 years old have a significantly higher risk of a severe illness, with the highest mortality being among people over 80 years of age.

The table below shows the death rate for different age groups:

Age

Mortality Rate (%)

80+ year old

14.8

70-79 years old

8.0

60-69 years old

3.6

50-59 years old

1.3

40-49 years old

0.4

10-39 years old

0.2

0-9 years old

no fatalities*

⚠️ Recent data from New York City Health (April 14th, 2020) showed 3 deaths in the age group 0 - 17 years old. All children had underlying conditions that included diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, hypertension, asthma, kidney disease, or GI/liver disease.

COVID-19 fatality rate by sex

At this early stage of pandemic, it is still not possible to provide a clear answer to the question how sex influences the health outcomes of people diagnosed with coronavirus. So far, data suggest that both sexes are equally likely to get infected, however men are more likely to die due to infection (death rate in all cases: 2.8% vs 1.7%).

Here are some possible explanations:

  • differences in immune system responses;
  • men are more likely to suffer from other pre-existing medical conditions that may increase the fatality rate (e.g. cardiovascular disease);
  • lower use of medical services; and
  • other social and structural inequalities (e.g. ethnicity, disability).

COVID-19 fatality rate by comorbidity

Data suggest that patients with underlying health conditions and risk factors might be at a higher risk of a severe disease or death from COVID-19.

These include:

  • Cardiovascular disease;
  • Diabetes mellitus;
  • Chronic respiratory disease;
  • Hypertension;
  • Malignant disease/cancer;
  • Cerebrovascular disease;
  • Chronic renal disease; and
  • Smoking.

Read more about these morbidities in our cvd risk calculator, blood pressure calculator, and diabetes risk calculator.

I am at higher-risk group. What now?!

Below you can learn what actions you can take (based on your conditions) to protect yourself.

  • Cardiovascular disease and hypertension:
    • Take your medication exactly as prescribed;
    • Make sure that you have at least a two-week supply of your heart disease medications (those include antihypertensive drugs or drugs to treat high cholesterol); and
    • Control your blood pressure as directed.
  • Diabetes:
    • Continue taking diabetes pills and/or insulin as usual;
    • Make sure that you have at least a two-week supply of your medication;
    • Test your blood sugar as often as the doctor ordered and keep track of the results; and
    • Follow the sick day guidelines for people with diabetes if you get sick.
  • Chronic respiratory disease:
    • Continue taking your medication as prescribed;
    • If you need to use inhalers - make sure that you know how to use them; and
    • Avoid triggers that make your symptoms worse.
  • People aged 65 or older:
    • Take medications for any underlying health conditions exactly as prescribed;
    • Be prepared to stay at home for long periods of time (food, medicines supply);
    • Develop a document that summarizes your current health conditions and treatment plan (you can use this care plan provided by CDC).
Dominika Śmiałek, MD, PhD candidate, Joanna Michałowska, PhD candidate and Aleksandra Zając, MD
This calculator is using data published in a paper by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in February 2020. It may be no longer up to date with the latest figures.
The tool was based on over 70,000 COVID-19 cases in China to inform people how important it is to take individual protection measures 👤 to prevent a COVID-19 infection. It helps you to understand how your comorbidities affect how serious the disease might be if you get infected with the virus.
Probability of death if infected with COVID-19
Your age
years
Sex
Female ♀️
Your health
What illnesses do you suffer from?
Cardiovascular disease
No
Diabetes
No
Chronic respiratory disease
No
Hypertension
No
Malignant disease
No
Results
You're in the low-risk group of suffering from a severe COVID-19 infection, as your risk of a severe illness is lower than the WHO average - 3.4%. Young age and no comorbidities keep your risk of dying if infected with COVID-19 at a safe level.
For every 1000 people of similar age and health to yours, who have a confirmed COVID-19 infection, less than 34 will die.
The risk is low, but doesn't equal zero. Follow the safety rules to minimize it.
Factors that increase your COVID-19 death risk
❓ The greatest risk factor for a severe COVID-19 infection is age, please fill in your age.
✔️ A female's risk of dying from COVID-19 is almost two times lower than that for males.
I want to see death rate chart by
age
To protect yourself, your loved ones, and other people at risk, #StayAtHome and practice social distancing.
Our calculator uses data published in a paper by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which was released in February 2020. It was based on over 70,000 COVID-19 cases in China and so far, it is one of the biggest fatality rate datasets.
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